fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts
We continue our conversation about challenges to democracy in America by talking with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. 01:06 PM. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterms primaries. FiveThirtyEight Politics 199 Episodes Share Follow Episodes About 61 minutes | Feb 27, 2023 How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear To mark a year since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. Science reporter Maggie Koerth also joins to talk about shifting attitudes on climate change among Republicans. The U.S. House Districts To Watch In 2022: 10/17/22 The team debates if Americans. The crew discusses the role of the debt ceiling in politics, why it exists in the first place, and the chances of it being abolished altogether. The crew breaks down the results of the June 7 primaries. Saturday, February 25, 2023. Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics. Together they describe why the war has not turned out as originally expected, what the risks of escalation are today and how the conflict might come to an end. Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. They also review the mostly finalized congressional maps for the cycle and discuss new polling on American polarization. 91.5 Chapel Hill 88.9 Manteo 90.9 Rocky Mount 91.1 Welcome 91.9 Fayetteville 90.5 Buxton 94.1 Lumberton 99.9 Southern Pines Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texass 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texass Rio Grande Valley. The crew discusses why the country responded to the attacks the way it did and how healthy American democracy is today. What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? You have to take and pass a grammar test, then submit a transcription template before you can get assignments from Rev. What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? So, the usual. They also break down how candidate misconduct is generally factored into the FiveThirtyEight model. Commentators and politicos have given lots of hot takes on why Democrats did so poorly in Tuesday's election and what it portends for the 2022 midterms. President Bidens $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. Finally, they analyze why Bidens approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July. As Emanuel Macron has occupied the middle of the political spectrum in France, with a focus on cooperation among European nations, the opposition parties have moved toward a nationalist, populist agenda. The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. FiveThirtyEight's COVID-19 podcast is laser-focused on evidence. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections. Edit your transcribed text. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the best way to poll Americans satisfaction with their own lives and the direction of the country. They also continue to track the types of candidates former President Trump has endorsed in the 2022 Republican primaries. MANAGER'S SALARY. 00:14:18 - Federal health agencies asked states to pause in their use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine while U.S. officials investigate reports of an extre No place like 'Nam. The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict. With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments. Lastly, the team analyzes how the educational divide is shaping American politics. We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems. The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party view the violent events of January 6th, 2021. Rev. Feb. 25, 2021. info. The crew previews Californias primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. This research library service enables you to: Search more than 2,489,000 U.S. broadcasts using closed captioning; Borrow broadcasts on DVDs; View and Cite short streamed clips; Compare and Contrast perspectives across networks, stations and time; and Place video quotes within your commentary. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? The crew discusses how hurricanes shape political perceptions, whether 52 Democrats senators would be all that different from 50 and how the Electoral Count Reform Act could prevent future attempts to meddle with American elections. Democrats overperformed in two special elections on Tuesday, including a win in New York's 19th district, which is four points more Republican than the national partisan lean, according to FiveThirtyEights metric. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment. Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of Model Talk.". Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. My mid-week morning train WFH reads: The SPAC Fad Is Ending in a Pile of Bankruptcies and Fire Sales: At least eight businesses that went public through mergers with "blank-check" companies have sought protection from creditors. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Thanks! Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. Good Sport TED Audio Collective Sports Requires subscription and macOS 11.4 or higher 28 FEB 2023 Ron DeSantis over Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential primary. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data.". In early January of 2020, then-President Trump encouraged Raffensperger to help overturn the election results in Georgia. FiveThirtyEight Politics 3 days ago Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided. In her new book How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them, Barbara F Walter writes we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe. My theme song for the "What's the Point" podcast from FiveThirtyEight, a podcast about our data age. All you have to do is click the iTunes button below to subscribe to this podcast. Instagram did not return a 200. The State Of The Polls, 2016. The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. RSS Loading. As the House Select Committee for Jan. 6 publishes its final report, the crew considers what the committee's impact has been on American politics and former President Donald Trump's standing with voters. Galen Druke speaks with the director of the Harvard study, Robert Waldinger, about the lessons his findings have for politics in America. FiveThirtyEight Politics Biden Is Set To Be The Next President 2020-11-07 The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election. Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the states likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. The question is whether Mississippis law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional. They also consider whether the ensuing confirmation process will impact the countrys broader political environment in a Midterm election year. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. The results are mixed in terms of which factions of both parties performed well and the marquee Republican Senate primary race in Pennsylvania is still close to call and could remain that way for days. In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their Model Talk hats on and discuss the initial results from the 2022 midterms. They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or bad use of polling. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. They also look back at 2021, try to pinpoint the most consequential political events of the year and discuss how their understanding of American politics was challenged. New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the issues that are motivating voters with less than a month until the election. Maybe its time to get rid of election polls. It's a busy week! Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other elections around the country. The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer a more moderate Justice among the Liberals retires. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. On todays Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and the likelihood of Congress reaching a compromise. In this installment, the crew plays a game of midterm trivia and analyzes the press coverage surrounding the latest decline in life expectancy. Local news is disappearing across the country. It was a fiendishly clever and massively hyped invention. In the main event, former light The crew discusses how Liz Cheney and Madison Cawthorn's primaries serve as a test of what the Republican Party and its voters will and wont accept. Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. If Europe, and of the shop leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store when you rating. With one week left until Election Day, the crew analyzes some of the high-profile races and which issues Americans care about most as they enter the voting booth. Raffensperger's new book is called Integrity Counts.". They also review Democrats agenda for the current lame duck session in Congress and hold their first post-midterm 2024 Democratic primary draft. Galen and Nate discuss the reasons for Republicans' improvement in the forecast. 266, the . American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In this show, Jody Avirgan, Nicole Hemmer and Kellie Carter Jackson (and guests) take one moment, big or small, from that day in U.S. political history and explore how it might inform our present -- all in about fifteen minutes. 2,. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the factors that went into Republican Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor's race. FiveThirtyEight Politics 295 views 25 Feb 2021 Transcribe your podcast [00:00:06] Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics podcast. Why Valentina Shevchenko Is A Huge Favorite And Jon Jones Isn't At UFC 285,A pair of championships are on the line at UFC 285 in Las Vegas Saturday night, and both title bouts offer a study in contrasts. The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. The crew discusses how a bipartisan gun control deal was reached and if this unwritten legislation could be passed by the end of the year. The first half of this episode originally aired on November 5, 2018, and was produced by Dan Pashman, Anne Saini, and Aviva DeKornfeld, with editing by Gianna Palmer and mixing by Dan Dzula. Its October and the surprises are rolling in. Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. They also take a look at the endorsements former President Trump has made in 2022 congressional primaries and discuss why worries about inflation can be so politically potent. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling.". In 2018, the operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property ABC News (also under parent The Walt Disney Company ). The podcast turns its focus abroad, to Canada and Germany, to see how other democracies' electoral systems work and what cleavages their politics are facing. The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. They also look ahead to how the Department of Justice will navigate the complexities of deciding whether to bring charges against Trump and how a Republican majority in the House could respond. The crew discusses how Bidens approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. This is the second episode. The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics. 1 min read; Jun 05, 2022; Bagikan : parade of homes matterport . They also debate the meaning of a recent poll from Axios that suggests Americans are exhausted. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what theyve learned from this election so far. They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden's dismissal of the polls is a "good or bad use of polling.". The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. As we discussed earlier this week, House Democrats plan on passing a one point nine trillion dollar American rescue plan by the end of the week. They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump. FiveThirtyEight Politics News Latest Transcripts How To Make Polls Better 240 views about 2 years ago 01:12:44 Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them. FiveThirtyEight Politics Transcripts | Podgist FiveThirtyEight Politics https://fivethirtyeight.com/podcasts/ Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. Galen Druke talks to Nicole Hemmer about her new book, "Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s.". They also discuss the politics of reparations after a Democratic proposal in the House to study reparations for slavery was voted out of committee for the first time since it was introduced in Congress in 1989. Galen Druke speaks with George Washington University economist Tara Sinclair about the economics behind Americans pessimistic assessment of the economy. The idea of the celebrity politician isnt going away just because former President Trump is out of office. . They consider how much preelection polling can tell us about the state of the country and what other sources we might rely on. The crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative priorities passed. LS 81 Global Rank TOP 0.01% ABOUT THIS PODCAST Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. Our tool analyzes your audio using Google voice recognition. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. The Gabfest, featuring Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz, is the kind of informal and irreverent discussion Washington journalists have Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Courts recent abortion decision. Member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Heather Boushey, joins the podcast to discuss what is in the American Rescue Plan and why. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. @Nate_Cohn: The Democrats are putting up an impressive showing in VA-4, the first special congressional election of the cycle. In his new book "Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America," Washington Post national columnist Philip Bump argues that many of the fissures that the country is facing today politically, economically, culturally have to do with the Baby Boomers getting old. They also consider the causes of hyperinflation, as Democrats and Republicans blame different culprits for the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. They also introduce a new FiveThirtyEight collaboration with Ipsos aimed at polling Americans about the issues they care most about in the run up to the midterms. The Rules of the Game podcast discusses and compares democratic institutions from around the world. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of Political Science at UC Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and whether a similar American consensus is possible today. They also ask whether the Republican Party can coalesce around an alternative to former President Donald Trump and whether President Bidens recent dismissal of the polls is a good or bad use of polling. Staff writer at The Atlantic Elaine Godfrey and political science professor Danny Hayes discuss the role local news plays in society and what happens when it erodes. It's easy. The crew discusses what comes next in Democrats' attempt to pass election reforms, after their proposals hit roadblocks in the Senate. With the data from the most recent term in hand, the crew discusses how far to the right the Supreme Court has gone. The cofounders of Equis Research -- a political data firm focused on Latino voters -- share their research on why that swing happened. The data behind that evolution is striking. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. BOLIVAR The executive director of the Stark-Tuscarawas-Wayne Joint Solid Waste Management District is going to resign from the position and will then be rehired. Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. Each week, host Jody Avirgan brings you stories and interviews about how data is changing our lives. Happy holidays! The crew looks back at what Americans thought about some of the biggest political and cultural issues of 2021. The crew reacts to the results in Tuesdays primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. They also discuss Democratic lawmakers' varying views on how to approach Senate rules and the filibuster. This week Nikki Haley became the first major candidate to challenge former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. Lastly, they ask whether a recent survey of Americans attitudes about secession is a good or bad use of polling. They also consider why Republican senators' votes on convicting former President Donald Trump broke down the way they did. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? apache saddles amarillo texas shockwave treatment for gallstones in the philippines price Dive in and Share your insights! The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota. podcast transcripts and podcast transcription services. Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill. Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like. In this installment of Model Talk," Nate and Galen reflect on the many twists and turns of the 2022 campaign so far, including the most salient policy issues and what the final results could tell us about pollsters performance this cycle. The team also discusses public opinion on gun laws after recent mass shootings in Texas, New York and California. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News (US) Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms. The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it increases gas prices. Texas has been in a dire situation this week. They also look at how the Democratic Party's effort to rearrange its presidential primary calendar is going, and ask whether a survey of Republican National Committee members was a good or bad use of polling. Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. It's tempting to use the special election to gauge the national political environment, but the crew explains why one election alone isn't a reliable indicator. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups. Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what he's learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. Tensions between the U.S. and China have grown in recent years and, in this installment, the crew looks at changing public opinion of China and how it could shape American politics. miami heat trade rumors 2022, haggen dress code,
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